Men jeg kommer tilbage inden laenge!

I loebet af den sidste maaned har Honduras meldt sig ud af ALBA, Micheletti er blevet udnaevnt som livs-tids-medlem af kongressen med dertil hoerende loen, og loven om folkelig deltagelse er blevet annuleret… Praesidenten sidder stadig spaerret inden i den brasilianske ambassade… Og modstandsbevaegelsen kan stadig mobilisere protest-marcher med 20.000 deltagere… Spaendende situation at komme tilbage til!

Honduras: What Now?

Honduran Congress votes down Zelaya’s reinstatement

And on Friday OAS realized that they were not going to reach a consensus on whether or not to recognize the November 29 Elections:

Honduras: U.S. Urges Support of Neighbors for New Leader

Insulza: “Return of Honduras to OAS will be possible only when the outcome of June 28 is overcome”

The Supreme Electoral Tribunal is meanwhile getting closer to a final result of the elections, and has had to acknowledge that the level of abstention was a lot higher than the 39 % they claimed right after the elections. Here’s an explanation of how they could be so wrong:

Don’t Go Changing….

And the most recent numbers:

Keeping Them Honest

The Human Rights situation and the environment of impunity continue critical. Here’s a public denounce from an American analyst who was verbally attacked on the Election Day because she questioned the transparency and peacefulness of the elections:

Honduran “Electoral Observers” Launch Verbal Attack on Americas Program Director

On Saturday the monthly anti-coup newspaper ‘El Libertador’ was raided by armed men and also during the weekend a number of persons involved in the Resistance have been captured and are now considered disappeared. Sunday evening five young men from the Resistance were shot down at a workshop in Tegucigalpa. The Human Rights organization CODEH talks about 30 violent killings around the country during the weekend.

I recommend this video about the Election Day: Honduras: An election validated by blood and repression

Special Rapporteurship for freedom of expression expresses its deep concern regarding the situation of freedom of expression in Honduras

Military Shooting Must be Urgently Investigated and Witnesses Protected

Saturday evening soldiers stormed the offices of Red Comal, one of the organizations who are active in the Resistance, and took away computers and information material, causing fortunately only material damage:

Coup Security Forces Raid Campesino Organization Day Before the Elections

At the same time, USA continued to state that they would recognize the elections no matter what. Some time ago, it was ‘free and fair’ elections, that they would recognize, but those small words seem to have been left out. On Wednesday a Brazilian diplomat advised the state department to reconsider:

U.S. Policy on Honduras Puts Latin Ties at Risk, Brazilian Says

Trampling on Honduran democracy

Weary of Political Crisis, Honduras Holds Election

In spite of the warnings of several national and international human rights organizations, the Resistance and Zelaya, that the atmosphere in the country was not adequate for celebrating elections – and in spite of the statements of most of the International Community that they would not recognize the elections, unless the democratic order had been restored before them – Election Day came and passed:

Honduras conservative leads in controversial election

Honduras elects Porfirio Lobo as new president

It is seems to be clear, that Porfirio Lobo from the National Party has won – and that the Liberal Party is completely divided. But even today confusion rules about the level of abstention, which the ‘official’ statements claim was very low, and the Resistance and Zelaya claim was historically high. All the votes have not been counted yet, and the Supreme Electoral Tribunal has apologized for some technical errors in their system that makes it difficult to check the already counted votes. Here are some numbers:

Numbers Dropping

USA congratulated the Honduran people for having celebrated peaceful elections this morning:

State’s Rich Fantasy Life

Briefing on the Honduran Elections

And yes, there was only little bloodshed yesterday – one person reported killed by the army, and little more than 80 people detained. A journalist was beaten by the police as he was documenting a violent repression by the army of a demonstration in San Pedro Sula.

There is an explanation of the ‘peacefulness’, however. The Coordination of the Resistance had suggested a so called ‘popular curfew’, urging people nationwide to stay home on Sunday. They did that to avoid what happened in San Pedro Sula, where members of the Resistance did protest in the streets – peacefully as usual, but then facing the violence of the armed forces.

Here is a message to the US-government from an organization that was in Honduras to document the conditions, as they say:

National Lawyers Guild Calls for the US to Disavow the Legitimacy of Elections in Honduras

While Honduras was going through the electoral farce, representatives from most Latin American countries met at an Ibero-American Summit in Portugal, where they among other things discussed their position on Honduras and the elections. Consensus about the subject will not be possible to reach, but it has been an occasion for the different countries to make clear their opinion. Costa Rica, Panama, Peru and Colombia are clear – they join the USA in recognizing the new government. Argentina, Bolivia, Cuba, Brazil, Venezuela, Ecuador, Paraguay, Guatemala, Nicaragua and Chile are also clear – they will not recognize any new government, as long as the coup stands. They are too aware of the precedent which is being made for the region:

Differences on Honduras election divide Ibero-American Summit

Scheduled for this week are two important meetings. The first is on Wednesday – the meeting of Congress to vote about the restitution of Zelaya (who sustains that he will not accept restitution only to legalize the coup). The second is on Friday, where the OAS will have another extraordinary meeting about Honduras.

Here are a few pictures of the militarized elections in Honduras: Represión en Elecciones

Today the Resistance has been celebrating what they consider their victory – the high level of abstention. They continue advocating for a constituent assembly and urge the international community not to recognize the result of the elections.

Decision to Restore Ousted Honduran Leader Is Delayed Until After Vote

Two days later, Micheletti said that he would step down for a week, starting November 25, in order to transfer the focus from the political crisis to the elections. He plans to be back as coup president the same day Congress is going to vote about the future of Zelaya. He assured, however, that if his presence would be needed he would step back immediately:

Micheletti to step down briefly for Honduras vote

Today the OAS held another extraordinary meeting about their position regarding the elections in Honduras, but they did not manage to reach a consensus. The USA and Panama appeal for a recognition of the elections, while the rest of the member countries sustain that they can support neither the elections nor their outcome under the present circumstances.

In the meantime, Honduras is once again turning into a state of emergency with nightly inspections by the police of members of the Resistance’s houses, retention of privately owned weapons, random detentions, obstruction of the broadcasting of canal 36, and the calling in of extra soldiers.  Last week close to 13 million USD were spent on teargas and other military material – imported from USA. All national hospitals are ordered to suspend scheduled surgeries in a two-week period in order to stay ready for emergencies:

Honduras regime seeks to disarm citizens ahead of polls

United States backs illegal elections in Honduras

COFADEH denounces repression plan

During the week a lot of candidates from all parties (even the national party) have redrawn from the electoral process – a fact that has been celebrated by the Resistance. On Saturday the small party UD, that has been in front of the Resistance all along, surprisingly opted for participating in the elections. This has caused division in the party; hence many UD candidates responded the decision by redrawing. At the moment only one presidential candidate has redrawn – Carlos H. Reyes.

Day 149 of Honduras coup resistance

In spite of the de facto government’s campaign of fear, the Resistance has called for a national strike this week. An international Human Rights Observatory is preparing for sending a mission this week to document the ongoing and expected human rights violations. Their report will be send to the UN, the OAS and the European Union.

U.S. Tries to Salvage Honduras Accord

The US position continues to be that they will recognize the elections and their result, whether or not Zelaya is reinstated. Panama and Colombia have joined them in that position. On Thursday, 240 academics and experts on Latin America send an open letter to Obama, urging him to change his position and join most of the international community in condemning the fraudulent electoral process and their outcome. They proposed an interesting alternative solution of the crisis – namely to postpone the elections and start all over the campaigning period of three months starting the moment Zelaya is reinstated:

Over 240 Academics and Experts on Latin America Call on Obama to Denounce Human Rights Abuses by Honduran Dictatorship

On Wednesday, the European Parliament discussed their position on the elections in Honduras. Still, however, there is no consensus in the parliament on the issue:

Political situation in Honduras with a view to the elections on 29 November 2009 (debate)

Some countries have stated that they would recognize the elections only if Zelaya is reinstated before November 29. Yesterday Zelaya issued an open letter to US president Obama, stating among other things, that he will not accept a restoration with the sole purpose of legitimizing the elections. Two weeks before the Electoral Day, it is too late. There is no way to turn the elections into a free and fair process now. Read the letter in Spanish here

During the week a growing number of candidates have been redrawing their candidatures, starting with the independent candidates who support Carlos H. Reyes, and then a huge number of candidates from the liberal party, PINU and UD. After yesterday’s statement from Zelaya it is expected that even more will redraw. The Resistance is still calling for a boycott of the elections, tearing down campaigning material, demonstrating on a daily basis at the congress building and promoting political consciousness all over the country.

Honduras: Why the resistance will boycott the November 29 election; Zelaya on accord

Honduras: ‘The elections are fraudulent’

As military presence is being doubled until elections (for security reasons the coup government says) random violence is growing and stays unpunished. The Resistance is gathering evidence of the fraud which they know will happen during the elections. Some days ago a conversation between the liberal presidential candidate Elvin Santos and his campaigning coordinator Marlon Lara was recorded, proving that they are receiving a huge amount of public money (59 million USD) for their political campaign.  Hear the conversation here (Spanish).

Here are some pictures of the demonstrations.

Demokrati-krise i Honduras

Picture borrowed from www.elpais.com

Honduras politicians defer vote

As Thursday evening approached (deadline for the installation of a ‘unity and reconciliation government’) with no news from Congress, the Resistance announced that they would boycott the elections if Zelaya were not reinstated Thursday at midnight. He wasn’t and Zelaya declared the collapse of the agreement. Micheletti asked his government to step back Thursday evening to pave the way for a unity government – appointed and headed by him. On Friday, however, he said that he would give Zelaya the weekend to appoint some of his people for the until now unilateral unity government. But Zelaya refuses to recognize a unity government, which is not headed by the elected president. So does most of the International Community.

Deal or no deal in Honduras

As Honduran Deal Failed, Split Behind Crisis Grew

Honduran rivals signal new bid to solve crisis

This development has not only intensified the crisis in Honduras. It has also brought about a renewed discussion on the intentions of the USA and the credibility of that country’s actions in relation to Honduras. As the (until now) only country, USA is showing signs that it very well might recognize the elections in Honduras even if Zelaya is not reinstated as president. Furthermore, USA has not detained the cancelation of sanctions put on the de facto regime. On Tuesday Zelaya asked Hillary Clinton to clarify whether her position had changed – a question which has not been answered yet:

In wake of Honduras agreement, DeMint releases hold on Obama nominees

Ian Kelly on Honduras

Honduras and the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord (Taken Question)

Troubles for a Deal — and for Obama — in Honduras

OAS General Secretary, José Miguel Insulza, is still firm on what should be the interpretation of the signed agreement – according to him a unity government can only be headed by the elected president:

Statement of the OAS secretary general on the situation in Honduras

The Resistance has been standing in front of congress all week. Today they took the final decision not to recognize the elections. Carlos H. Reyes, the independent candidate for president, announced his withdrawal from the elections, which will be made official tomorrow.

Deal Set to Restore Ousted Honduran President

Obama Scores Regional Points with Zelaya’s Return

Statement of the OAS secretary general regarding the agreement reached in Honduras

While diplomats were celebrating and congratulating each other on Friday, some members of congress started spreading doubts and uncertainties in Honduras such as: ‘who knows when congress will be able to meet; they are all busy in their electoral campaigns’ and ‘there is no guarantee that congress will vote in favor of the restitution of Zelaya’. According to Victor Meza – head of Zelaya’s negotiation-team – an initial plan was to celebrate the restitution of Zelaya in a ceremony with international guests to endorse the act already on Monday, but now a spokesperson from congress says that they will not be able to meet until Tuesday.

Part of the agreement is to form a so called ‘reconciliation and unity’ government. According to Meza this government is to be formed and installed at latest on November 5^th. And it is the idea that Zelaya head that government. If he is not reinstated before that date, the agreement would fall apart, and Honduras would face a second coup d’état, Meza says. Zelaya, however, expresses confidence in his restitution.

Honduran Congress to review crisis accord Tuesday

Honduras: Solution or Stall?

Don’t believe the hype about the “historic deal” reached in Honduras – no justice for the people

During this week some democrat US-congress members drew attention to the official report made in the US on Honduras and demanded it redrawn or corrected. This report can be considered part of the reason why the USA never determined the coup in Honduras to be a military coup:

Kerry, Berman want controversial Honduras report to be retracted

Whatever happens next week, there is no doubt that the present agreement is a huge step forward. There is also no doubt that the most important reason for this to have happened is the persistence of the people who have been in resistance for more than 4 months. Here is an article about the strengths of the Resistance:

Honduras: Growing Political and Organizational Maturity Will Bring Victory

In spite of the progress of diplomacy, repression continues – even the very day US officials were meeting with the two parts:

The negotiation is in the streets: A day of resistance and repression

And Zelaya is still holed up in the Brazilian Embassy:

Sleepless nights holed up in Brazilian Embassy

The armed forces where handed over to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal on Thursday – I guess with the purpose of engaging fully in the preparation of the elections. However, they are still on the streets together with the police, repressing people who are demonstrating peacefully.

The Resistance is planning on meeting at the congress on Monday at 8.00 am. – and stay there until congress has taken a decision. Then they will (hopefully) go to the Brazilian embassy and bring Zelaya to the presidential palace. If Zelaya is not reinstated, the plan continues to be a boycott of the elections.

Honduras crisis back to square one as talks fail

In the meantime reactions come from around the world as Election Day (November 29) is coming closer.

EU not to recognize Honduran election without agreement

Statement Attributable to the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General on Honduras

Leftist LatAm bloc rejects Honduras election

Tonight news came out that US State Department offered to send a delegation to Honduras next week to make another try for a negotiated solution.

Human rights are still under pressure even though the decree which revokes the decree suspending basic civil liberties was finally published last Monday – two weeks after it was said to be suspended. The same day Radio Globo and Canal 36 ‘Cholusat Sur’ were back on the air. All demonstrations are, however, still demanded to be approved by the police 24 hours before they are to take place and news media can be shut down without notice if they are considered to be a threat to ‘public order’. The international community continues to show concerns about the human rights situation:

Christian Leaders Advocate for Human Rights in Honduras after Coup

Delegation probes human rights abuses in Honduras

OAS Permanent Council condemns acts of intimidation against Brazilian embassy in Honduras

Honduras regime uses noise attack as U.S. cuts visas

The strategy of the Resistance continues to be a boycott of the elections if Zelaya is not reinstated before. Today liberal candidates from 16 departments (of 18) met and issued a letter to the OAS urging them not to recognize the elections if Zelaya is not reinstated, and stating that they would redraw their candidatures if elections were carried out without Zelaya. Students in Resistance have said that they will not allow the universities to be handed over to the army.

I recommend this illustrative video from Al Jazeera: Fault Lines – 100 Days of Resistance